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6

Tresor Aredien

6yo Gelding · 10-5

Dax · Prix Chateau De Poyanne Hurdle · 2m 2f 195y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Dax 25/06/2023 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 12125/06C5C5 @ Dax 27/07/2023 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12127/07C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 25/08/2023 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f205y GS 12125/08C5C5 @ Mont De Marsan 21/02/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m3f40y Hvy 12221/02C5projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-02-21Mont De Marsan?11th13th−2
2023-08-25La Teste De Buch?7th9th−2
2023-07-27Dax?7th9th−2
2023-06-25Dax?8th10th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0627/0725/0821/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength15%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20238th66/10%36%+0.36
27/07/20237th28/10%45%+0.45
25/08/20237th40/10%33%+0.33
21/02/202511th20/10%17%+0.17