3
Lost In Music
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Dax · Grand Prix De La Ville De Dax Stakes · 1m 3f 95y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Mont De Marsan | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-10 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tarbes | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 28/01/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 11/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 10/08/2026 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 18% | -0.67 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |