2
Orisson
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Dax · Grand Prix De La Ville De Dax Stakes · 1m 3f 95y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tarbes | 3 | 13th | 15th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 3 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Pau | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 26/12/2025 | 13th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 11/05/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |