1
Melcastille
4yo Filly · 11-0
Dax · Prix Du Sablar Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 87y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Dieppe | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Toulouse | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-15 | La Teste De Buch | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Angers | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |