10

Call Me Toni

6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 87

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Keeneland 26/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m1f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2024 · OR 91 par26/10C5OR 91C5 @ Ellis Park 04/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 91 parC5 @ Kentucky Downs 04/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 93 · 1m2f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 93 par4/09C5OR 93C6 @ Turfway Park 11/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 96 · 1m2f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 96 parC8 @ Turfway Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 125 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 92 par14/02C8OR 92C8 @ Turfway Park 14/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y 125 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 91 parC7 @ Delaware Park 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 89 par24/07C7OR 89C7 @ Delaware Park 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m70y Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Delaware Park 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m70y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 85 par16/09C7OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Delaware Park?7th6th+1
2026-08-20Delaware Park?5th4th+1
2026-07-24Delaware Park?6th5th+1
2026-03-14Turfway Park?2nd2nd0
2026-02-14Turfway Park?5th5th0
2025-12-11Turfway Park?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1011/1224/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20246th50/10%55%+0.55
04/08/202510th66/10%18%+0.18
04/09/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
11/12/20258th33/10%22%+0.22
14/02/20265th5/287%60%-0.27
14/03/20262nd15/890%86%-0.04
24/07/20266th3/184%29%-0.56
20/08/20265th8/158%56%-0.02
16/09/20267th14/126%45%+0.19