Lady Catalina
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 62
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 25/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |