Momentous Affair
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 63
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |