Lady Arwen
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |