5
Minister Confessor
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 69
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 21/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |