3
Romelia
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |