5

Just Call Ray

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 69

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#11

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 23/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 99 · 1m1f Fas 123 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 99 par23/02C8OR 99C6 @ Colonial Downs 15/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 96 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2025 · OR 96 parC8 @ Aqueduct 26/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 96 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 96 par26/04C8OR 96C6 @ Penn National 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 103 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 103 parC6 @ Delaware Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 102 par23/08C6OR 102C6 @ Penn National 13/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 98 parC8 @ Penn National 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 95 · 1m70y 121 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 95 par13/12C8OR 95C8 @ Delaware Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m70y 124 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Delaware Park 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m 121 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 70 par18/09C8OR 70projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Delaware Park?6th6th0
2026-09-12Delaware Park?6th6th0
2025-12-13Penn National?5th5th0
2025-11-13Penn National?7th5th+2
2025-08-23Delaware Park?7th5th+2
2025-07-10Penn National?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0210/0713/1218/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20252nd20/10%83%+0.83
15/03/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
26/04/20255th8/158%20%-0.38
10/07/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
23/08/20257th7/282%0%-0.82
13/11/20257th7/282%14%-0.67
13/12/20255th10/147%0%-0.47
12/09/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
18/09/20266th10/147%44%-0.03