11
Lake Chapala
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |