1
Orb Alpha
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 14/02/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/03/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |