4
Butter Man
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 60
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +14.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |