11
Chance On Me
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 64
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 17-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |