17
Johnny Mac
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 41
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +86.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |