Code Name Willow
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 72
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 02/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |