2
Tiza Smokeshow
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +25.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |