9
Lucky Twist
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 14% | -0.77 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |