Night Preacher

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Delaware Park	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-07-29	Penn National	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-07-08	Delaware Park	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-06-17	Delaware Park	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-05-27	Delaware Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-05-09	Laurel Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▬

Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/12/2025	8th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/03/2026	4th	14/1	26%	40%	+0.14
22/03/2026	9th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
09/05/2026	6th	9/2	76%	44%	-0.32
27/05/2026	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/06/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
08/07/2026	7th	33/1	0%	25%	+0.25
29/07/2026	6th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
05/09/2026	9th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00