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5

Bye Bye Now

4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 57

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning handicap debut over C&D in March and backed that up with good in-frame efforts next 2 starts. Disappointed at Down Royal latest but remains low mileage. Returns from an 11-week absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f Std 12910/12C8C8 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 5f Std 14228/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Std 14211/02C8BHA52 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 52 · 5f Std 122 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 52 par20/0352OR 52BHA59 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 5f Std 141 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 59 par1/0459OR 59BHA57 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 57 · 5f3y Gd 139 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 57 par3/0757OR 57BHA60 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 142 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 60 par17/0760OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA607th7th0
2026-07-03BellewstownBHA572nd2nd0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA594th4th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA521st1st0
2026-02-11Dundalk?4th4th0
2026-01-28Dundalk?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1220/0317/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20256th11/142%29%-0.14
28/01/20264th100/10%75%+0.75
11/02/20264th25/10%57%+0.57
20/03/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
01/04/20264th11/486%67%-0.19
03/07/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
17/07/20267th4/179%40%-0.39