IvyArcIvyArc
1

Caffu Zafeen

5yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 63

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a falling mark when opening account under this rider in 17-runner event at Fairyhouse last month. Strong in the betting and didn't need to improve to follow up under a penalty in 13-runner event at this course (6f) last week. 8 lb higher now but respected in hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newmarket 20/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 66 par20/065OR 66BHA63 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 21 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 63 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f45y Goo 132 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 62 par18/0662OR 62BHA60 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 142 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA56 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 27 · OR 56 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 56 par22/0856OR 56BHA54 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 54 · 6f Yie 124 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA49 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 49 · 5f Gd 132 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 49 par5/0949OR 49BHA48 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 119 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 48 parBHA48 @ Dundalk 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 48 · 6f Std 125 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 48 par25/0948OR 48projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25DundalkBHA481st1st0
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA481st1st0
2026-09-05NavanBHA495th5th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA5414th14th0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA569th9th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA6011th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/063/085/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
07/06/202618th33/10%15%+0.15
18/06/202615th66/10%0%0.00
03/08/202611th20/10%29%+0.29
22/08/20269th33/10%69%+0.69
29/08/202614th12/137%28%-0.09
05/09/20265th22/10%76%+0.76
21/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
25/09/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04