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4

One Cool Bear

3yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 58

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Only beaten 3¾ lengths at Navan (5f) last month. Dropped 3 lb on the back of a similar effort at Fairyhouse last time and sports a change of headgear back down in class. Engaged 3.20 Bellewstown Thursday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 62 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 62 par27/0262OR 62BHA66 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 66 · 6f Std 138 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 66 parBHA65 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f205y Gd 123 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 65 par27/0465OR 65BHA64 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f111y Gd 132 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 63 par28/0563OR 63BHA60 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 60 parBHA55 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 par5/0955OR 55BHA55 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 parBHA52 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 5f3y Sft 135 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 52 par1/1052OR 52projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01BellewstownBHA521st1st0
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA558th8th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA558th8th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA6014th14th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA6313th13th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA647th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0211/055/091/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/02/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65
01/04/20264th10/382%75%-0.07
27/04/20264th18/15%73%+0.67
11/05/20267th8/158%50%-0.08
28/05/202613th12/137%0%-0.37
12/06/202614th20/10%7%+0.07
05/09/20268th66/10%59%+0.59
21/09/20268th28/10%56%+0.56
01/10/20261st17/255%100%+0.45