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8

Phil's Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 54

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of a classified event at Wolverhampton in March. Struggled in turf handicaps at Naas since but back to form when fifth of 11 at former track (6f) last month. Needs to build on that here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA51 @ Dundalk 04/10/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 51 · 5f Std 129 · below its mark04/10/2024 · OR 51 par4/1051OR 51BHA49 @ Dundalk 01/11/2024 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 49 · 5f Std 127 · beat its mark01/11/2024 · OR 49 parBHA43 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 43 · 5f Std 125 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 43 par17/1243OR 43BHA42 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 42 · 5f Std 126 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 42 par6 @ Wolverhampton 27/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 121 · beat its mark27/01/2026 · OR 45 par27/016OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 47 parBHA54 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 54 · 5f Gd 124 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 54 par9/0554OR 54BHA49 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 49 · 5f Goo 119 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 54 · 6f21y Std 129 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 54 par1/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA4911th11th0
2026-05-09NaasBHA548th8th0
2026-03-16Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-01-27Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-01-23DundalkBHA4212th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1023/019/051/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/202412th8/158%0%-0.58
01/11/202410th18/15%31%+0.26
17/12/202512th33/10%0%0.00
23/01/202612th66/10%15%+0.15
27/01/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
16/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
09/05/20268th33/10%53%+0.53
04/07/202611th18/15%9%+0.04
01/09/20265th15/261%60%-0.01