9
Subiaco
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 54
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA56 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | BHA61 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | BHA61 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dundalk | BHA61 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Dundalk | BHA54 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Down Royal | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/08/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 05/09/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 22/03/2026 | 15th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |