IvyArcIvyArc
11

Top Biller

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 48

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

On long losing run and little show on both outings for new connections in recent weeks. Equipment left off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 55 par24/106OR 556 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 53 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 50 par10/036OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 48 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Yarmouth 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 48 · 6f3y Gd 129 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 48 par28/046OR 486 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 49 · 5f215y Goo 129 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 49 par18/066OR 49BHA60 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 60 · 6f Yie 130 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA52 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 52 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 52 par21/0952OR 52projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA5215th15th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA6010th10th0
2026-06-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-05-29Brighton612th12th0
2026-04-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton611th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1024/0318/0621/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20259th4/179%38%-0.40
24/02/20266th15/261%44%-0.16
10/03/20266th9/276%38%-0.39
24/03/202611th7/163%0%-0.63
28/04/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
29/05/202612th7/163%8%-0.55
18/06/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
29/08/202610th80/10%50%+0.50
21/09/202615th16/116%13%-0.03