10
Eclairage
4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 87
Dundalk · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Cork | BHA89 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA89 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA92 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | BHA85 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 06/06/2026 | 16th | 7/1 | 63% | 21% | -0.42 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 28/06/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |