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1

Kerdos

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 90

Dundalk · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Snapped a lengthy losing run in first-time blinkers when edging a strongly-run 9-runner C&D handicap in July. Undone by a 5 lb rise in the weights back here (6f) the following month and yard look to have a stronger candidate in Sir Les Patterson.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 5f Sft 129 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 100 par4/101OR 100BHA100 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 100 · 5f Std 138 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 100 par1 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 100 · 6f Sft 135 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 100 par4/041OR 1001 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 98 · 5f Gd 135 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 96 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 96 par17/051OR 96BHA95 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 5f Goo 137 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 95 parBHA92 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 92 · 5f Gd 135 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 92 par28/0692OR 92BHA89 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 89 parBHA94 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 94 · 6f Std 134 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 94 par15/0894OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15DundalkBHA949th9th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA891st1st0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA9211th11th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA956th6th0
2026-05-17Naas18th8th0
2026-04-27Naas16th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1027/0428/0615/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20255th12/137%56%+0.19
06/02/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
04/04/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
27/04/20266th33/10%64%+0.64
17/05/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
07/06/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
28/06/202611th12/137%33%-0.04
12/07/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
15/08/20269th17/255%27%-0.28