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7

Prairie Girl

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 79

Dundalk · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful over C&D on first 2 starts early this year. After 6 months off, fared best of those held up when fourth of 12 at the Curragh in August but proved a touch disappointing when only sixth of 16 at Navan (5f, good) last month. Returns to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Cork 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 57 par14/0857OR 57BHA54 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 54 · 5f Std 136 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 54 · 5f Std 136 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 54 par31/1054OR 54BHA66 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 66 parBHA69 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 69 par9/0169OR 69BHA77 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 5f Std 137 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 77 parBHA86 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f Std 127 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 86 par20/0286OR 86BHA83 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 83 · 5f GF 125 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 83 parBHA83 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 143 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 83 par2/0983OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA836th6th0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA834th4th0
2026-02-20DundalkBHA8610th10th0
2026-02-06DundalkBHA771st1st0
2026-01-09DundalkBHA691st1st0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA661st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/085/1220/022/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
14/10/20254th8/158%77%+0.19
31/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
05/12/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
09/01/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
06/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
20/02/202610th4/179%0%-0.79
09/08/20264th20/10%73%+0.73
02/09/20266th6/168%67%-0.02