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5

The Highway Rat

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 90

Dundalk · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

39%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Isn't the easiest to win with but took a step back in the right direction when fifth of 20 at the Curragh (5f, good to soft) 6 days ago. Return to this venue could allow him to build on that effort (5-time winner here, including this race in 2022).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 95 · 5f Std 138 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 95 par14/1095OR 951 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 99 · 5f Std 140 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 99 parBHA99 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 99 · 6f Gd 140 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 99 par23/0599OR 99BHA98 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 98 parBHA99 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 99 · 5f Std 139 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 99 par12/0799OR 99BHA99 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 99 · 6f63y Goo 137 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 99 parBHA98 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 98 · 5f GF 140 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 98 par9/0898OR 98BHA93 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 24 · OR 93 · 6f Yie 128 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 93 parBHA93 @ Curragh 26/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 93 · 5f Yie 134 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 93 par26/0993OR 93projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26CurraghBHA935th5th0
2026-09-13CurraghBHA9314th14th0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA989th9th0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA9915th15th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA996th6th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA982nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/107/069/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20254th4/179%25%-0.54
24/10/20256th12/137%62%+0.25
23/05/20266th28/10%76%+0.76
07/06/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
12/07/20266th9/276%38%-0.39
18/07/202615th33/10%26%+0.26
09/08/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
13/09/202614th40/10%43%+0.43
26/09/20265th22/10%79%+0.79