3
Valiant Force
5yo Colt · 9-12 · OR 91
Dundalk · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA81 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | BHA100 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA104 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA89 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Naas | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 03/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 27/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |