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5

Big Negotiator

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 101

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving since the visor went on, winning listed races over 5f at Naas in July and Fairyhouse over 6f 11 days ago. Soft ground accounted for her blip at York in between and she's one to view very positively switched to all-weather and dropped back to 5f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f Yie 12816/05C8C8 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f60y Goo 1282 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 12312/0621 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 84 par4/071OR 841 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 88 par1 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 102 · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 102 par20/081OR 1021 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 101 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 101 par21/091OR 101projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Fairyhouse11st1st0
2026-08-20York111th11th+0
2026-07-22Naas11st1st0
2026-07-04Naas14th4th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot115th15th+0
2026-06-12York21st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0517/0620/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20263rd1/195%67%-0.28
31/05/20262nd11/893%86%-0.07
12/06/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
17/06/202615th66/10%46%+0.46
04/07/20264th15/890%67%-0.23
22/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
20/08/202611th25/10%38%+0.38
21/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12