8
Controlla
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 94
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 17/06/2026 | 14th | 3/1 | 84% | 46% | -0.38 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |