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Grayrobin

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 96

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice in July and came second in weakish listed race at the Curragh in August but had limitations exposed when fifth of 5 in a Group 3 at Longchamp 29 days ago. Bit more required making all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 13331/055C8 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 1332/07C8C0 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f GF 13324/07C?1 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 92 par16/081OR 921 @ ParisLongchamp 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 97 · 4f213y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 97 par3/091OR 97projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03ParisLongchamp15th5th+0
2026-08-16Curragh12nd2nd0
2026-07-24Cork?1st1st0
2026-07-02Bellewstown?1st10th−7
2026-05-31Nottingham58th13th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/052/0724/0716/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20268th17/255%30%-0.25
02/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
24/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
16/08/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
03/09/20265th8/158%0%-0.58