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12

Shimmering Sun

2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 95

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second to Big Negotiator over 5f at Naas in July before flopping at York (went amiss) in August. Bounced back with a good second of 8 at Kempton 27 days ago on all-weather debut in a Group 3 and now drops back in trip with place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 12823/0551 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0611 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 92 par22/071OR 921 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 95 · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 95 par20/081OR 951 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 94 par5/091OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton12nd2nd+0
2026-08-20York114th14th+0
2026-07-22Naas12nd2nd0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot17th7th+0
2026-05-23Salisbury51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0517/0622/0720/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
17/06/20267th16/116%77%+0.61
22/07/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
20/08/202614th18/15%19%+0.13
05/09/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70