5
New Mexico
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 61
Dundalk · Michael And Esther Cooney Memorial Nursery Handicap · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA65 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |