1
Tio Joao
2yo Colt · 10-3 · OR 75
Dundalk · Michael And Esther Cooney Memorial Nursery Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |