10
Fighting Tears
2yo Filly · 9-0
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |