4
Joga Bonito
2yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 93
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA90 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fairyhouse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |