Nicely
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 94
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |