5
One Number
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 97
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | ? | 5th | 14th | −7 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 17/06/2026 | 18th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |