7
South Dakota
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 98
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA95 | 1st | 11th | −9 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 77% | -0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |