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5

Bear Right

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 63

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has now had the 12 starts but has made the frame in handicaps on her last 6 outings. Went close when runner-up at Naas in August, though showed her quirks (hung right) when fourth of 14 at Leopardstown 6 weeks ago. Makes all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 1282/09C8BHA70 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 70 parBHA67 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 67 par3/0567OR 67BHA64 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 par14/0663OR 63BHA61 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA64 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 64 · 7f50y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 64 par16/0764OR 64BHA64 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 64 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 64 parBHA65 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 65 par20/0865OR 65projClass-projected finish: 1st of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20LeopardstownBHA654th2nd+2
2026-08-03NaasBHA642nd0th+2
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA643rd1st+2
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA613rd1st+2
2026-06-14CorkBHA634th2nd+2
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA643rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/094/0616/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20256th66/10%44%+0.44
18/09/20256th12/137%67%+0.30
03/05/20267th12/137%14%-0.23
04/06/20263rd8/158%83%+0.25
14/06/20264th13/266%73%+0.07
01/07/20263rd10/147%88%+0.41
16/07/20263rd5/287%85%-0.02
03/08/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14
20/08/20264th3/184%77%-0.07