Chosen One
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 66
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | BHA68 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA69 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 72% | +0.72 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 25/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |