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16

Coasting

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 66

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise on first 2 of 3 starts in maidens, making the frame here (6f) on debut. Failed to improve on handicap bow when thirteenth of 18 at Cork (1m) 23 days ago, but he could yet do better. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Std 13410/04C8C8 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 13424/04C8C8 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 1m Gd 13415/05C8BHA67 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 67 par9/0967OR 67projClass-projected finish: 11th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA6713th11th+1
2026-05-15Leopardstown?9th9th0
2026-04-24Cork?5th5th0
2026-04-10Dundalk?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0424/0415/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
24/04/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
15/05/20269th20/10%43%+0.43
09/09/202613th20/10%29%+0.29