11
Little Sure Shot
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 69
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 02/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 18/09/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 69% | +0.14 |
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |