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Aviatrice

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 95

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with victories over C&D and in 1m listed race here. Winless this season but continues in good form, brought wide when eighth of 18 in handicap at Leopardstown (1m, good to firm) 20 days ago. Very much one to consider back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA79 @ Leopardstown 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Gd 127 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 79 par21/0879OR 79BHA78 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 78 par1 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 91 · 1m Std 128 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 91 par7/111OR 91BHA88 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 129 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 88 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 88 par14/0688OR 88BHA88 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 88 · 7f GF 131 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 88 · 1m Goo 140 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 88 par16/0788OR 881 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 90 · 7f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 90 parBHA90 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 90 · 1m60y Gd 135 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 par12/0990OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA908th8th0
2026-08-08Haydock18th8th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA882nd2nd0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA883rd3rd0
2026-06-14CorkBHA8810th10th0
2026-05-23CurraghBHA883rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0823/0516/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20252nd10/382%89%+0.06
14/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
07/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20263rd13/266%90%+0.25
14/06/202610th5/174%36%-0.38
27/06/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
16/07/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
08/08/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
12/09/20268th6/168%59%-0.10