2
Bear On The Run
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 89
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength89%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |