3
Mallavelly
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 81
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA81 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA85 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA86 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | BHA84 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA83 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA85 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 10/05/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 65% | +0.38 |