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5

Temperance

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in 6f Naas handicap last May. Found things tough in listed/Group 3 company this season and very slowly away back in handicaps last 2 outings, suffering a troubled passage when seventh of 10 at the Curragh (7f, good to soft) 6 days ago. Handily weighted if on her A-game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 81 par18/051OR 81BHA84 @ Naas 25/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 84 · 5f205y Gd 125 · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 84 par1 @ Leopardstown 10/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 82 par10/071OR 821 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 80 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 84 par22/071OR 841 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 84 par23/081OR 84BHA83 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 138 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 83 parBHA80 @ Curragh 26/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Yie 121 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 80 par26/0980OR 80projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26CurraghBHA807th7th0
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA838th8th0
2026-08-23Naas17th7th0
2026-08-14Cork17th7th0
2026-07-22Naas111th11th0
2026-06-28Curragh16th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0528/0623/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20255th80/10%20%+0.20
25/06/20255th9/276%0%-0.76
10/07/20258th66/10%0%0.00
28/06/20266th80/10%38%+0.38
22/07/202611th66/10%29%+0.29
14/08/20267th100/10%40%+0.40
23/08/20267th100/10%14%+0.14
21/09/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
26/09/20267th25/10%33%+0.33